2010 NFL Divisional Playoffs

RAVENS (13-4) AT STEELERS (12-4)
Both AFC playoff games this weekend are the third meeting between bitter division rivals. As good as Jets/Pats has been of late, Baltimore/Pittsburgh has been better. Seven of the last eight games between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less and this year’s playoff installment shouldn’t be much difference. The Ravens manhandled an upstart Kansas City team in the wild card matchup, while the Steelers are coming off a bye and welcoming back a healthy and rested Troy Polamalu. The teams split their regular season games, but the Steelers won the game in which they had Ben Roethlisberger. I like both teams a lot, but trust Big Ben more to extend plays and make big throws than Joe Flacco.

Steelers 27, Ravens 24

PACKERS (11-6) AT FALCONS (13-3)
The Packers and Falcons have already played once this year in Atlanta while both teams were mostly healthy. And the Falcons won. But in the rematch I like Green Bay. The Falcons winning formula all year was to play 60 full minutes of smart, disciplined football and catch a few breaks. They followed that plan perfectly in their matchup against Green Bay in November and pulled off a last-minute victory. Unfortunately, I don’t think that they can count on a goal-line fumble and 344 passing yards accounting for just one solitary touchdown the second time around. The Packers are a better offensive a defensive team than the Falcons, but the Falcons have stayed far more healthier this season. Nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will ride his arm to the NFC Championship game and perhaps further.

Packers 38, Falcons 20

SEAHAWKS (8-9) AT BEARS (12-4)
Nobody in the country truly believed that Seattle would miraculously upend the defending champs last week, but a smidgen of me isn’t too surprised that Seattle proved to be a tough environment for the Saints. This week, the worst NFC playoff team ever has to go on the road – where they were 2-6 this year but one of the wins was at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears however are far more developed offensively than they were when Seattle first came to call. Mike Martz has crafted the offense into a unit that plays to its strengths and I’m picking convincingly against the Seahawks for a second consecutive week.

Bears 31, Seahawks 14

JETS (12-5) AT PATRIOTS (14-2)
While comparisons to the 16-0 2007 Patriots are obviously unfounded, this is still a very talented New England club that embarrassed the Jets 45-3 on Monday Night Football just over a month ago. Sanchez has played poorly in Gillette Stadium, throwing seven picks in two games whereas Tom Brady is on an incredible 12 game run. The Patriots dominance has always been directly tied to turnover success, and I believe if the Jets can win that battle, they have a very good chance at pulling off a huge upset. Unfortunately, Tom Brady has completely stopped turning the ball over and has received superb protection since Pro Bowl lineman Logan Mankins returned from a holdout.

Patriots 27, Jets 21

2010 NFL Wild Card Weekend

SAINTS (11-5) AT SEAHAWKS (7-9)
Flying across the country to play the Seahawks in Seattle has always been fairly daunting, but this is a Seahawks team that lost at home this year by 16, 18 and 34 points to teams that finished 10-6 or better. The Saints may be the second best team in the NFC bracket and I don’t foresee the Seahawks giving them too much trouble. It’s a quarterback-driven league and Drew Brees brings his Super Bowl ring out west, Pete Carrol has to decide whether to start an injured Matt Hasselbeck or a timid Charlie Whitehurst who had trouble against a 7-9 Rams team last week.

Saints 28, Seahawks 13

JETS (11-5) AT COLTS (10-6)
A rematch of 2009’s AFC championship, but nothing is really the same. The Jets had a dominant defense and run game with little passing prowess last year, and now their defense and running game are less intimidating, but they’ve added more outside weapons and Mark Sanchez has shown improvement in ball security and decision making. They will still need to get pressure on Manning, something I think might be hard for the Jets to execute. Indianapolis still has Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, but are missing a lot of pieces that killed the Jets last year. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon will be blanketed by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, so for the Colts to win, guys like Jacob Tamme and Blair White need to have big games. With Peyton Manning throwing to them, it’s distinctly possible.

Jets 23, Colts 21

RAVENS (12-4) AT CHIEFS (10-6)
The Ravens are a better team, but it’s hard not to like the Chiefs playing at home in January. Their only home loss this year came against the Raiders in Week 17, after Kansas City had already clinched the AFC West. Matt Cassel has been one of the league’s most improved players, and if he continues to take care of the ball and feed the running game, they’ve got a great chance. But the Ravens have played a much harder gauntlet than KC, and looked better doing it. If Baltimore can get Ray Rice heavily involved in both the running and passing games, they should open things up for Flacco when KC keys on stopping Rice.

Ravens 20, Chiefs 10

PACKERS (10-6) AT EAGLES (10-6)
If the NFL seeded playoff teams according to record, every Wild Card game would change location. That the Packers made it this far with no running game and devastating injuries along the way is a testament to how good Aaron Rodgers is. The Eagles feature one of the most exciting offenses in the league, but the defense is young, undisciplined and frankly, not very good. Mike Vick is going to have to outgun Rodgers and the Pack to win this game, and I think Green Bay does enough to limit him and his playmakers. While I’d love to see the Eagles win this week and next to set up a potential trip to Atlanta, I think the Packers offense will overwhelm and underwhelming Philadelphia defense.

Packers 34, Eagles 24