Thoughts on the NFL Draft

I nailed nine of thirty two picks in my 2011 mock draft, ten if you count the fact that I had Julio Jones going sixth overall, just not to the Falcons. The draft shook out basically the way I expected it and there weren’t too many surprises, but with the amount of NFL draft coverage nowadays, that’s not unexpected. Here are some thoughts I have from the draft.

Patriots: Very strange draft from them. I felt certain they would address their need for pass-rush help in a draft that was heavy on the position, but the soundly ignored it. They didn’t take a defensive lineman until the sixth round, and even then it was a relative unknown end from Central Arkansas. After striking gold with undersized cornerback McCourty last year, they grabbed a similar guy in Ras-I Dowling. They took a pair of running back to add to their backfield committee and grabbed the draft’s most enigmatic individual in Ryan Mallett. They did also trade one of their two first round picks and are set up with a pair of first round picks and a pair of second round picks in 2012, providing their is a draft. But their draft strategy for 2011 was odd. They don’t seem leaps and bounds better on either side of the ball than they were last season. Their biggest need was pass rush and they did not address that. Regardless, the Patriots will remain one of the AFC’s elite teams

Atlanta traded up to add Jones

Falcons: Coming off a season where they earned the top overall seed in the NFC, Atlanta traded away a lot of draft picks to get the guys that they wanted. And surprisingly, they wanted offensive playmakers. They moved all the way up to sixth overall to grab Alabama wideout Julio Jones and they moved up again later in the draft to select Oregon State tailback Jacquizz Rodgers. Undoubtedly, Matt Ryan now has plenty of weapons at his disposal after relying perhaps too heavily on Roddy White, but scoring wasn’t what kept them from winning a playoff game—an inability to even remotely slow down Aaron Rodgers was. Akeem Dent should provide some push on the defense, but they didn’t get the bookend to John Abraham they needed, or the shutdown corner that they lacked. The offense will be more explosive than last season, but the defense still needs work. With a division winner’s schedule, the Falcons might be looking at a step backwards rather than forwards in 2011.

Lions: After years of complete futility, the Lions have started to build a legitimate NFL football team. Solid first-round selections like Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have re-energized a stagnant offense, and most recent first-rounders Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley give the Lions what amounts to a brick-wall defense. I loved both their second round selections of Titus Young and Mikel LeShoure as well. Jahvid Best flashed brilliance in his rookie season, but also missed some time and was reluctant to run downhill. LeShoure will do nothing but run downhill and Young gives Stafford another outside weapon to deflect some attention from Megatron. The Lions saw a four game improvement from 2009 to 2010, which would have been five if not for a terrible rule that disallowed Calvin Johnson’s Week 1 game winning touchdown catch. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that they approach another four game improvment from last year to this year.

Wilkerson's press conference

Jets: The Jets, like many teams in the 2011 draft needed defensive line help and they certainly took the proper steps to address that. Without a second round selection, the Jets took Temple DT Muhammed Wilkerson in the first round and Hampton DT Kenrick Ellis in the third round, adding nearly 700 pounds to their aging defensive line unit. Both players should be able to slide into the rotation and contribute right away to Rex Ryan’s system. They added another running back to their already crowded backfield with their fourth round selection of Bilal Powell. They probably waited too long to address their need at WR, taking Jeremy Kerley in the fifth round and Scotty McKnight in the seventh. That they failed to take a cornerback surprised me somewhat as Rex Ryan’s blitzing defense is predicated on excellent corner play. The Jets must be hopeful of their chances at re-signing Antonio Cromartie. Kerley’s special teams ability probably is a safety net for if (when) the Jets lose all-purpose Brad Smith to free agency.

Buccaneers: I really liked what Tampa Bay did coming off a surprisingly impressive season. Like their division rivals, they needed to address their pass rush situation and did twofold. They made Iowa end Adrian Clayborn their first selection and then took Da’Quan Bowers when he fell all the way to 51st overall. A serious consideration to go number one overall just four months ago, Bowers stock fell because of medical concerns about his knee. An elite talent if healthy, Bowers is worth the risk the Bucs are taking on him. Washington linebacker Mason Foster was a solid third-round pick for Tampa Bay and all of a sudden, a rather unspectacular defense has turned mighty impressive.

Titans: After parting ways with Vince Young, Tennessee definitely needed a quarterback and was in fantastic position to take the one of their choosing at number eight overall. With every quarterback except Newton still available, the Titans chose Locker, the guy I predicted they would take. There were question marks with each signal caller in this year’s draft, and Locker to the Titans seemed like a bit of a reach. His biggest knock was his inaccuracy, something Vince Young often struggled with as well. Locker is a well-built quarterback with physical tools to succeed, but his decision making will need to improve to make this all work out in Nashville. Second round pick Akeem Ayers was a great pick and should help solidifying a less-than-imposing linebacker corps.

Top 10 Plays from Jets/Pats

JETS 28, PATRIOTS 21
The Jets did most of the talking leading up to the weekend finale and then brought all the talk to a stop and punched the NFL’s best team in the gut. Repeatedly. Apart from a brutal play-calling sequence and a missed chip-shot field goal in the first quarter, the Jets played nearly flawless football and executed their gameplan to perfection. The got significant pressure without having to overload blitz and played blanket coverage all night long on every Patriot receiver. The Jets front seven delivered four of the Jets five sacks and hit Brady again and again. They had the surefire MVP flustered, scared and making mistakes. Brady would scan through his progressions and nothing would be there. Nothing. The Jets ended Tom Brady’s 360 pass streak without an interception and constantly forced him to check down and throw the ball away or into the turf.

Even with Randy Moss earlier this season, the Patriots never really possessed a true deep threat that could effectively stretch the field. However, because of Tom Brady’s accuracy and the Patriot’s route-running, the offense exploded after Moss was traded. The offense was built upon underneath routes and the after-the-catch ability of guys like Deion Branch, Wes Welker and the young tight ends. The Jets took all of that away with superb coverage and open-field tackling. The limited the Patriots big plays and flustered Brady into a decidedly un-MVP type of performance. Of Tom Brady’s 45 pass attempts, only two went for more than 20 yards. Three, if you count David Harris’ 58-yard interception return. The Jets effectively shut down the running game, holding New England running backs to 89 yards on 23 carries (3.86 yards per carry), allowing them to focus on stifling Brady. The Jets defense said Brady looked scared, but I’d probably label it indecisive and confused. He was hit exponentially more times than he is used to and things that typically open up in that offense were slammed shut for him.

The Jets offense was sporadic on Sunday afternoon, alternating brutal series with beautiful ones. Tomlinson looked fresh for a second straight week and averaged 4.3 yards per carry and made an acrobatic catch on a pass behind him and over his head which he took in for a 7 yard score to get the Jets on the board. Shonn Greene averaged 4.5 yards on his 17 carries and is running hard and downhill for a second consecutive postseason. Running a more traditional offense with their Wildcat option inactive with a groin injury, the Jets moved the ball when they needed to and in a very satisfying turn of events, cashed in five red zone opportunities with four touchdowns. They didn’t turn the ball over and although they held the ball for 10 minutes less than the Patriots, it was the Jets who always seemed calm and in control.

They played smart, hard and disciplined. They racked up only 3 penalties (35 yards) and converted 6 of 13 third down attempts and held New England to 5 of 18 on third and fourth down tries. They knocked off the 14-2 number one overall seed in the playoffs in their own house where the Patriots were 8-0 this year.

1. David Harris’ interception and 58-yard return
After the Jets punted on their first possession, Brady led the Patriots deep into Jets territory. On 1st-and-10 from the 28, Brady overthrew his running back coming out of the backfield and David Harris became the first person to intercept Brady since Week 5 and returned it inside the Patriots 15. The Jets offense ended up going backwards and Nick Folk missed a gimme field-goal, but the interception changed the tone of the game, showing that the Patriots were not going to walk all over the Jets two games in a row.

Edwards' 37-yard reception

2. Braylon Edwards’ 37-yard reception
Trailing 3-0 with 12 minutes left in the half, and facing 3rd-and-6 around midfield, Mark Sanchez’s usually clean pocket collapsed and two Patriots got in his face. Sanchez avoided both pass-rushers and rolled out to his left. He saw Braylon Edwards and pointed towards the sideline before lobbing a throw over the NE defender and into Edwards’ hands for a 37 yard gain and a huge first down. Two plays later, Sanchez hit Tomlinson on a swing pass for a touchdown and a 7-3 lead.

3. New England botches a fake punt
On 4th-and-4 from their own 38, New England tried a direct snap to safety Pat Chung, who muffed it and by the time he recovered it, his lanes had closed and the Jets had taken over in New England territory with just over a minute left in the half. With the Patriots due to get the ball to start the second half, and the Jets moving the ball somewhat sporadically, the decision was a strange one.

Edwards' 15-yard TD catch

4. Braylon Edwards (and two NE defenders) score a 15-yard TD
After LT gained 22 yards on two carries, Edwards pulled in a pass around the seven yard line and dragged two defenders into the end zone for a touchdown just before halftime which gave the Jets a 14-3 lead going into the break. They capitalized on the Patriots special teams gaffe and gave themselves some breathing room.

5. Calvin Pace strip-sacks Brady
Pace’s strip sack set the Patriots back into a third-and-forever type of play and forced another punt after yet another short possession.

Cotchery's 58 yard catch-and-run

6. Jerricho Cotchery’s 58-yard catch and scamper
One play after New England drew within 14-11 with a touchdown and two-point conversion, Jerricho Cotchery took a short pass and raced 58 yards deep into New England territory to take back some of the momentum the Patriots turned with their score. Cotchery is not one of the Jets flashy offseason additions, but has been their consistent veteran that does everything that’s asked of him and does it perfectly and 100%.

7. Santonio Holmes tapdance touchdown
Facing third and four on the New England 7, Mark Sanchez threw a pass up and out of the back left corner of the end zone. But Santonio Holmes went up and his toes came down in the endzone with a TD catch eerily reminiscent of his Super Bowl MVP catch a couple of years ago. A bullet throw from Mark Sanchez just stuck to his hands and both feet came down in bounds and the Jets had a 21-11 lead and seemingly all of the momentum.

Santonio Holmes celebrates his diving TD catch

8. Fourth down stop
After the Holmes touchdown, the Patriots marched down the field, eating clock and churning out first downs. They seemed to lack the urgency a team down two scores in the fourth quarter usually has. They found themselves facing a 52-yard field goal attempt or a fourth-and-13. They went for it and Brady threw slightly behind Branch who couldn’t pull in the pass and the Jets got the ball back on downs.

9. Antonio Cromartie & Shonn Greene put the game away (temporarily)
After the Patriots had managed a field goal to pull to within 21-14, Antonio Cromartie returned an onside-kick attempt to the New England 23 and Shonn Green took it to the house two plays later to give the Jets a 28-14 lead, but also gave the Pats one last chance. A first down would have ended the game as the Patriots were out of timeouts, but the score gave them the ball back for another shot at a miracle.

10. Eric Smith covers it up
Sure enough, the Patriots marched down the field and scored to make it a one possession game again and lined up for their second on-side kick in two minutes. This one bounced right into the hands of safety Eric Smith who fell on it and the Patriots season was over when Mark Sanchez took a knee on the ensuing play.

2010 NFL Divisional Playoffs

RAVENS (13-4) AT STEELERS (12-4)
Both AFC playoff games this weekend are the third meeting between bitter division rivals. As good as Jets/Pats has been of late, Baltimore/Pittsburgh has been better. Seven of the last eight games between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less and this year’s playoff installment shouldn’t be much difference. The Ravens manhandled an upstart Kansas City team in the wild card matchup, while the Steelers are coming off a bye and welcoming back a healthy and rested Troy Polamalu. The teams split their regular season games, but the Steelers won the game in which they had Ben Roethlisberger. I like both teams a lot, but trust Big Ben more to extend plays and make big throws than Joe Flacco.

Steelers 27, Ravens 24

PACKERS (11-6) AT FALCONS (13-3)
The Packers and Falcons have already played once this year in Atlanta while both teams were mostly healthy. And the Falcons won. But in the rematch I like Green Bay. The Falcons winning formula all year was to play 60 full minutes of smart, disciplined football and catch a few breaks. They followed that plan perfectly in their matchup against Green Bay in November and pulled off a last-minute victory. Unfortunately, I don’t think that they can count on a goal-line fumble and 344 passing yards accounting for just one solitary touchdown the second time around. The Packers are a better offensive a defensive team than the Falcons, but the Falcons have stayed far more healthier this season. Nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will ride his arm to the NFC Championship game and perhaps further.

Packers 38, Falcons 20

SEAHAWKS (8-9) AT BEARS (12-4)
Nobody in the country truly believed that Seattle would miraculously upend the defending champs last week, but a smidgen of me isn’t too surprised that Seattle proved to be a tough environment for the Saints. This week, the worst NFC playoff team ever has to go on the road – where they were 2-6 this year but one of the wins was at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears however are far more developed offensively than they were when Seattle first came to call. Mike Martz has crafted the offense into a unit that plays to its strengths and I’m picking convincingly against the Seahawks for a second consecutive week.

Bears 31, Seahawks 14

JETS (12-5) AT PATRIOTS (14-2)
While comparisons to the 16-0 2007 Patriots are obviously unfounded, this is still a very talented New England club that embarrassed the Jets 45-3 on Monday Night Football just over a month ago. Sanchez has played poorly in Gillette Stadium, throwing seven picks in two games whereas Tom Brady is on an incredible 12 game run. The Patriots dominance has always been directly tied to turnover success, and I believe if the Jets can win that battle, they have a very good chance at pulling off a huge upset. Unfortunately, Tom Brady has completely stopped turning the ball over and has received superb protection since Pro Bowl lineman Logan Mankins returned from a holdout.

Patriots 27, Jets 21

2010 NFL Wild-card Weekend

#6 Philadelphia (10-6) at #3 Dallas (11-5)

Philadelphia laid an egg with a chance to clinch the second seed in the NFC last week at Dallas, failing to score in a 24-0 loss. This week, they’re back in Dallas for a rematch, except this time, loser goes home. For Wade Phillips and the Cowboys, as impressive as they’ve been the past three weeks, if they come up short again in the playoffs, Jerry Jones is going to be doing some pretty good steaming.

Tony Romo’s playoff history is checkered at best and it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence throughout Texas, but maybe, just maybe he’s figured something out. Philadelphia’s once prodigious offense couldn’t buy yards last week in the Palace in Dallas. They’ll need some to have any hope of sticking with Tony Romo, Jason Witten and Miles Austin this week. With Marion Barber (who IS NOT who my dad thought he was) and Felix Jones splitting carries, the Dallas offense will be too much for Philly’s defense to slow down.

Ultimately, I like Dallas in a much more competitive game than last time around. COWBOYS 26, EAGLES 17

#5 Green Bay (11-5) at #4 Arizona (10-6)

In one of football’s head-scratching rules, Green Bay takes their better record on the road to Arizona in yet another NFC wild-card rematch. Just like Dallas above them in the bracket, Green Bay handled an Arizona team that really didn’t seem all in it last week once they were locked up in the four-seed.

Arizona has been more than spotty defending the pass this season and Aaron Rodgers has been pretty darn good for the Pack. However, with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals are more than capable of trading passing touchdowns with Green Bay.

However, I think that the game ends up being decided on the ground, with Green Bay able to control the pace of the game and the Cardinals losing a key fumble late. PACKERS 28, CARDINALS 24

#5 New York (9-7) at #4 Cincinnati (10-6)

In the third and final Week 17 matchup, the Jets and Bengals switch venues and go at it for real this time. The Bengals will have all their players rested and ready to make everyone forget about the 37-0 pasting they suffered at the hands of the Jets on national television. Carson Palmer won’t repeat his 1-for-11 passing performance from a week ago and Cedric Benson, the AFC’s fifth-leading rusher will be in uniform, healthy and rested. With Pro-Bowl NT Kris Jenkins out, the Bengals should be able to establish the run early.

The Jets have the AFC’s number one ranked defense, but they also have a rookie quarterback who completed just over 50% of his pass attempts and turned the ball over twenty times in fifteen games. Maybe the Jets did slip into the playoffs with two “gift” wins. But they possess the league’s best rushing attack and if they can control the clock just three-quarters as well as they did last week in the Meadowlands, they’ll have a heck of a chance at the upset.

Just like both games in the NFC, I see the same team winning for a second week in a row, albeit by a much narrower margin. JETS 23, BENGALS 12

#6 Baltimore (9-7) vs. #3 New England (10-6)

For as poorly as New England has played on the road this year (2-6), they’re been all the more impressive at home in Foxboro (8-0). The loss of Wes Welker stings, but Julian Edelman is a capable replacement and should see plenty of opportunities with Randy Moss drawing most of the attention.

Willis McGahee and Ray Rice must show up to play against a New England defense that is quite pedestrian against the run. Baltimore knows what’s need to knock off a favored Patriots team, and if the running game is there, then Joe Flacco is more than able to hurt New England through the air.

At the end of the day, New England has too much talent and is playing the home game. PATRIOTS 31, RAVENS 17