2010 NFL Divisional Playoffs

RAVENS (13-4) AT STEELERS (12-4)
Both AFC playoff games this weekend are the third meeting between bitter division rivals. As good as Jets/Pats has been of late, Baltimore/Pittsburgh has been better. Seven of the last eight games between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less and this year’s playoff installment shouldn’t be much difference. The Ravens manhandled an upstart Kansas City team in the wild card matchup, while the Steelers are coming off a bye and welcoming back a healthy and rested Troy Polamalu. The teams split their regular season games, but the Steelers won the game in which they had Ben Roethlisberger. I like both teams a lot, but trust Big Ben more to extend plays and make big throws than Joe Flacco.

Steelers 27, Ravens 24

PACKERS (11-6) AT FALCONS (13-3)
The Packers and Falcons have already played once this year in Atlanta while both teams were mostly healthy. And the Falcons won. But in the rematch I like Green Bay. The Falcons winning formula all year was to play 60 full minutes of smart, disciplined football and catch a few breaks. They followed that plan perfectly in their matchup against Green Bay in November and pulled off a last-minute victory. Unfortunately, I don’t think that they can count on a goal-line fumble and 344 passing yards accounting for just one solitary touchdown the second time around. The Packers are a better offensive a defensive team than the Falcons, but the Falcons have stayed far more healthier this season. Nobody is playing better than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will ride his arm to the NFC Championship game and perhaps further.

Packers 38, Falcons 20

SEAHAWKS (8-9) AT BEARS (12-4)
Nobody in the country truly believed that Seattle would miraculously upend the defending champs last week, but a smidgen of me isn’t too surprised that Seattle proved to be a tough environment for the Saints. This week, the worst NFC playoff team ever has to go on the road – where they were 2-6 this year but one of the wins was at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears however are far more developed offensively than they were when Seattle first came to call. Mike Martz has crafted the offense into a unit that plays to its strengths and I’m picking convincingly against the Seahawks for a second consecutive week.

Bears 31, Seahawks 14

JETS (12-5) AT PATRIOTS (14-2)
While comparisons to the 16-0 2007 Patriots are obviously unfounded, this is still a very talented New England club that embarrassed the Jets 45-3 on Monday Night Football just over a month ago. Sanchez has played poorly in Gillette Stadium, throwing seven picks in two games whereas Tom Brady is on an incredible 12 game run. The Patriots dominance has always been directly tied to turnover success, and I believe if the Jets can win that battle, they have a very good chance at pulling off a huge upset. Unfortunately, Tom Brady has completely stopped turning the ball over and has received superb protection since Pro Bowl lineman Logan Mankins returned from a holdout.

Patriots 27, Jets 21

2010 NFL Wild Card Weekend

SAINTS (11-5) AT SEAHAWKS (7-9)
Flying across the country to play the Seahawks in Seattle has always been fairly daunting, but this is a Seahawks team that lost at home this year by 16, 18 and 34 points to teams that finished 10-6 or better. The Saints may be the second best team in the NFC bracket and I don’t foresee the Seahawks giving them too much trouble. It’s a quarterback-driven league and Drew Brees brings his Super Bowl ring out west, Pete Carrol has to decide whether to start an injured Matt Hasselbeck or a timid Charlie Whitehurst who had trouble against a 7-9 Rams team last week.

Saints 28, Seahawks 13

JETS (11-5) AT COLTS (10-6)
A rematch of 2009’s AFC championship, but nothing is really the same. The Jets had a dominant defense and run game with little passing prowess last year, and now their defense and running game are less intimidating, but they’ve added more outside weapons and Mark Sanchez has shown improvement in ball security and decision making. They will still need to get pressure on Manning, something I think might be hard for the Jets to execute. Indianapolis still has Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, but are missing a lot of pieces that killed the Jets last year. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon will be blanketed by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, so for the Colts to win, guys like Jacob Tamme and Blair White need to have big games. With Peyton Manning throwing to them, it’s distinctly possible.

Jets 23, Colts 21

RAVENS (12-4) AT CHIEFS (10-6)
The Ravens are a better team, but it’s hard not to like the Chiefs playing at home in January. Their only home loss this year came against the Raiders in Week 17, after Kansas City had already clinched the AFC West. Matt Cassel has been one of the league’s most improved players, and if he continues to take care of the ball and feed the running game, they’ve got a great chance. But the Ravens have played a much harder gauntlet than KC, and looked better doing it. If Baltimore can get Ray Rice heavily involved in both the running and passing games, they should open things up for Flacco when KC keys on stopping Rice.

Ravens 20, Chiefs 10

PACKERS (10-6) AT EAGLES (10-6)
If the NFL seeded playoff teams according to record, every Wild Card game would change location. That the Packers made it this far with no running game and devastating injuries along the way is a testament to how good Aaron Rodgers is. The Eagles feature one of the most exciting offenses in the league, but the defense is young, undisciplined and frankly, not very good. Mike Vick is going to have to outgun Rodgers and the Pack to win this game, and I think Green Bay does enough to limit him and his playmakers. While I’d love to see the Eagles win this week and next to set up a potential trip to Atlanta, I think the Packers offense will overwhelm and underwhelming Philadelphia defense.

Packers 34, Eagles 24

2-for-2 Saturday, 0-for-Sunday

I picked both Saturday games correctly, and then bombed big time on Sunday’s guesses. Looking forward to this coming divisional weekend, I rather hope my Sunday picks are spot-on this time around.

Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3)

Arizona’s offense rolled in the desert and I fully expect it to take New Orleans by storm (too soon?). Kurt Warner threw five touchdowns against four incomplete passes against a numerically strong Green Bay defense.

For the first thirteen games, New Orleans was unstoppable – thirteen wins and only a couple of them were even close. But they lost their last three games and haven’t had a convincing win since November. A defense that seemed to score every week has lost that big play ability. Going up against Kurt Warner and his plethora of big-play receivers sure isn’t going to help.

Meanwhile, Arizona outgunned a loaded Green Bay team after finding a passable running game by the end of the season. Don’t be surprised if this game ends up being very similar to the one that just ended in Glendale. Drew Brees and Kurt Warner should both be ready to fling the ball all over the turf of the Superdome. At the very least, expect it to be a better game than the last game at the Superdome. CARDINALS 41, SAINTS 40

Baltimore (10-7) at Indianapolis (14-2)

The Ravens are coming off upsetting the mighty Bill Belichicks in Foxboro and the Colts haven’t played a complete game in about a month. The Colts say the rest will trump the rust, but that hasn’t played out all that well for the Colts in the past. People may be thrown off by the Colts’ last two games, but their first fourteen are far more indicative of their true talent level. They will not roll into this game unprepared.

With the Ravens coming off a dominant showing from their ground game, and the Colts ranking 24th in run defense this year, the Ravens may have a chance to establish themselves early in this game. But if the Colts can hold Rice and McGahee in check like they did earlier this season (98 combined yards), I can’t be optimistic about Joe Flacco doing enough to beat Peyton Manning.

Ultimately, I think the rest wins out over the rust and momentum and the Colts soothe their fans nerves at least for another week. COLTS 24, RAVENS

Dallas (12-5) at Minnesota (12-4)

Minnesota faltered down the stretch until they waxed the mail-it-in Giants on the last day of the season. Brett Favre avoided the late-season swoon that doomed him and the Jets last season, and is still playing at a very high level. Who would have thought that this team, which so prominently featured Adrian Peterson last year, would so quickly become all about Favre? Oh right, everybody.

Dallas comes into this game hotter than perhaps anybody else in the NFC crapshoot. A defense that’s peaking at the right time and an offense that is extremely balanced and talented in both running and passing the ball. The offense moves the chains and eat the clock, but with Miles Austin, Tony Romo and Felix Jones, there’s always the threat of a big play.

While Minnesota’s offense has continued to play well, the defense has slipped since a fast start. COWBOYS 31, VIKINGS 24

New York (10-7) at San Diego (13-3)

The Jets may have backed into the playoffs, but they proved they belonged with another dominant performance on Saturday. The Chargers are heavy favorites, but the Jets match up well against their second round opponent. If the New York defense has a weakness, it’s against the run – San Diego ranked 31st in rush offense. San Diego’s has the same defensive weakness, but the Jets own the top-ranked rushing attack, and Shonn Greene and his offensive line are playing especially well of late.

The Chargers have one of the best passing attacks in football with Malcolm Floyd, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates going up against the best pass defense in the NFL. But Darelle Revis can’t cover all three of the Chargers big targets. Guys like Kerry Rhodes and Dwight Lowery are going to need to play big.

If New York shuts down the vertical passing game, then Rivers can look to Darren Sproles, who is very dangerous in space. With LBs David Harris and Bart Scott playing on gimpy ankles, Sproles could have a huge game catching bubble screens and short slants out of the backfield.

The Chargers have won 11 games in a row, but four of their last five wins have been by three points or less. They’re certainly not invincible. JETS 20, CHARGERS 17

2010 NFL Wild-card Weekend

#6 Philadelphia (10-6) at #3 Dallas (11-5)

Philadelphia laid an egg with a chance to clinch the second seed in the NFC last week at Dallas, failing to score in a 24-0 loss. This week, they’re back in Dallas for a rematch, except this time, loser goes home. For Wade Phillips and the Cowboys, as impressive as they’ve been the past three weeks, if they come up short again in the playoffs, Jerry Jones is going to be doing some pretty good steaming.

Tony Romo’s playoff history is checkered at best and it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence throughout Texas, but maybe, just maybe he’s figured something out. Philadelphia’s once prodigious offense couldn’t buy yards last week in the Palace in Dallas. They’ll need some to have any hope of sticking with Tony Romo, Jason Witten and Miles Austin this week. With Marion Barber (who IS NOT who my dad thought he was) and Felix Jones splitting carries, the Dallas offense will be too much for Philly’s defense to slow down.

Ultimately, I like Dallas in a much more competitive game than last time around. COWBOYS 26, EAGLES 17

#5 Green Bay (11-5) at #4 Arizona (10-6)

In one of football’s head-scratching rules, Green Bay takes their better record on the road to Arizona in yet another NFC wild-card rematch. Just like Dallas above them in the bracket, Green Bay handled an Arizona team that really didn’t seem all in it last week once they were locked up in the four-seed.

Arizona has been more than spotty defending the pass this season and Aaron Rodgers has been pretty darn good for the Pack. However, with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals are more than capable of trading passing touchdowns with Green Bay.

However, I think that the game ends up being decided on the ground, with Green Bay able to control the pace of the game and the Cardinals losing a key fumble late. PACKERS 28, CARDINALS 24

#5 New York (9-7) at #4 Cincinnati (10-6)

In the third and final Week 17 matchup, the Jets and Bengals switch venues and go at it for real this time. The Bengals will have all their players rested and ready to make everyone forget about the 37-0 pasting they suffered at the hands of the Jets on national television. Carson Palmer won’t repeat his 1-for-11 passing performance from a week ago and Cedric Benson, the AFC’s fifth-leading rusher will be in uniform, healthy and rested. With Pro-Bowl NT Kris Jenkins out, the Bengals should be able to establish the run early.

The Jets have the AFC’s number one ranked defense, but they also have a rookie quarterback who completed just over 50% of his pass attempts and turned the ball over twenty times in fifteen games. Maybe the Jets did slip into the playoffs with two “gift” wins. But they possess the league’s best rushing attack and if they can control the clock just three-quarters as well as they did last week in the Meadowlands, they’ll have a heck of a chance at the upset.

Just like both games in the NFC, I see the same team winning for a second week in a row, albeit by a much narrower margin. JETS 23, BENGALS 12

#6 Baltimore (9-7) vs. #3 New England (10-6)

For as poorly as New England has played on the road this year (2-6), they’re been all the more impressive at home in Foxboro (8-0). The loss of Wes Welker stings, but Julian Edelman is a capable replacement and should see plenty of opportunities with Randy Moss drawing most of the attention.

Willis McGahee and Ray Rice must show up to play against a New England defense that is quite pedestrian against the run. Baltimore knows what’s need to knock off a favored Patriots team, and if the running game is there, then Joe Flacco is more than able to hurt New England through the air.

At the end of the day, New England has too much talent and is playing the home game. PATRIOTS 31, RAVENS 17