Back in early November, I predicted where 30 of MLB’s free agents would sign and how much they would sign for. Now I’m going back to that post and seeing how well I did.
I, like many free agents, agents and GM’s, did not anticipate the economy’s dip hitting baseball as hard as it did. As a result, only five of the thirty free agents signed deals worth more than I predicted for them.
I correctly pegged the teams for 14 of 30 free agents and got the years right for 12 of them. I didn’t get any of the money parts right but was within $5 million for five free agents (Burnett, Bradley, Moyer, Renteria and Affeldt)
Here’s a table outlining my predictions and what actually happened.
While not yet official, ’tis the season of letter in the Bronx. CC and AJ will join the 2009 Yankee rotation, for better or worse.
I think they seriously overpaid for both pitchers, but they added two guys who seriously miss bats. The first four starters for the Yankees line up as such:
For the fifth spot, they’ll probably try and convince Andy Pettitte to come back around ten or twelve million. If that doesn’t work, I assume they’ll fill the fifth spot by an internal competition between the likes of Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, Ian Kennedy and the like. I don’t think they’ll feel comfortable handing a four or five year deal to Derek Lowe or $13 million for another injury risk, Ben Sheets.
I was extremely wary of AJ Burnett, as he certainly isn’t the poster boy for consistency. But he might just be that guy for the “filthy stuff” fraternity. The one thing that makes me a little more comfortable with Burnett’s signing is the fact that the Braves were willing to match the Yankees offer.
If there’s a team that’s better at evaluating pitching talent than the Braves, I’m all ears. Any pitcher Atlanta’s braintrust is confident in, I’ll go along with.
If the Yankees can bring Angy Pettitte back, that will allow Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to get some much-needed Triple-A innings and Joba Chamberlain to get a start off every now and then to control his innings.
Five years from now we may be asking Brian Cashman what the hell he was thinking, or, we may be praising his genius. Here’s to hoping it’s the latter.